| dc.description.abstract | The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and
unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model.
The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths
of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using
framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel
data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation
applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in
the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last
quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM),
both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations
are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the
backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are
not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also
influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of
this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each
country in the ASEAN region. | en_US |
