Analisis Real Option Valuation Rencana Pembangunan Jalan Angkut Batubara Terhadap Ketidakpastian Produksi: Studi Kasus Provinsi Jambi

Abstract

Indonesia’s 2026 coal production quota policy increases uncertainty for hauling road investments whose revenues depend on transported tonnage. This case study evaluates a planned 77 km hauling road in Jambi Province using Monte Carlo simulation, DCF, break-even, sensitivity analysis, and Real Option Valuation (ROV). Historical coal production data were projected using non-parametric historical bootstrapping with 10,000 iterations to generate P10, P50, and P90 secnarios. At a WACC of 9.58%, the DCF scenarios generated negative NPS ranging from -Rp3,101.73 billion to -Rp590.58 billion, with a P50 NPV of -Rp1,949.84 billion, as revenues cannot cover the Rp3,771.65 billion CAPEX. Break-even volume increased from 6.43 to 6.85 million tons due to OM cost escalation outstripping tariff increases. Sensitivity analysis identified volume and tariff as the primary drivers, although ±20% variations left NPV below zero due to high initial capital requirement. Using the P50 financial scenario, ROV increased project value, with Black-Scholes yielding an option value of Rp187.47 billion and an expanded NPV of -Rp1,762.37 billion, while the binomial lattice yielded Rp 143.19 billion and an expanded NPV of -Rp1,806.65 billion, with decisions dominated by wait and abandon. The results indicate that managerial flexibility alone cannot offset the capital requirement under production quota uncertainty.