DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN SWASEMBADA KEDELAI DAN PENURUNAN SUBSIDI HARGA PUPUK TERHADAP KETERSEDIAAN KEDELAI NASIONAL

Abstract

Soybean is one of the leading food commodities that are very strategic to the economic development of Indonesia. However, the availability of soybeans at this time suffered appalling conditions, in which to meet the need of the soybean, the government is still doing the importation. There are two policies issued by the government and will directly affect the conditions of the national soybean supply. The two policies are soybean self-sufficiency and policy subsidized fertilizer prices decline. This research aims to determine the effect or impact of fertilizer price subsidy reduction policy and the policy of soybean self-sufficiency on the availability of the national soybean. The research method used in this research is descriptive and analytic methods. This study uses the secondary data in the years 1980-2008 and analyzed through a system of simultaneous equations econometric model by the method of 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square Methods), then proceed by the validation modeling for the analysis of policy simulation. The results showed that (1) the diversity of soybean market in Indonesia is determined by the interaction of the national soybean demand factors that are influenced by the price of soybeans, soybean human population and demand for the previous year. National soybean prices are influenced by the demand for soybeans, soybean supply, the amount of soybean production, soybean stocks, imports of soybeans, soybean world prices and soybean prices the previous year, (2) the impact of self-sufficiency policy with the removal of import soybean (Imports = 0) causes an increase of the soybean prices, (3) the impact of fertilizer price subsidy reduction policy resulted in increased availability of the national soybean.