DETERMINAN EKSPOR TEKSTIL INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA PERIODE 2001.1 - 2005.12

Abstract

This research is entitled “Determinant Textile Export In Indonesia to The Main States Of The Trade Business Partner in the years 2001.1-2005.12”. Its purposes are to know and to analyze the influence of determinant textile export factor Indonesia and to know the prospect of textile export performance in Indonesia. Analytical methods, which are used for this research are Analysis Of Double Linier Regressions and Box Jenkins Approach. The Analysis of Double Linier Regressions is applied for estimating some variables to this research. Box Jenkins Appoach is used for knowing Indonesia textile export prospect to the main states of the trade business partner, such as USA and Japan. According to the result of Double Linier Regression analytical methods, Indonesia trade to Japan could be known that variable of export competitive ability might get good influence and significance. GDP variable of Japan percapita positive influence and significance, as well as the variable of Rupiah exchange rate to Yen got good influnce and significance. While Indonesia trade to USA, variable of export competitive ability got negative influence and significance. GDP variable of USA percapita got positive influence and significance. Rupiah exchange rate to US$ got positive influence and significance. The analytic result with Box-Jenkins method (ARIMA) stated that the performance of Indonesian textile export to Japan. In this cased, it could be known by showing the prediction value in 2001.1-2005.12 incrased. In the mentime, Indonesia textile export performance to USA kept continuing. It could be known by showing prediction value in 2001.1-2005.12 decreased.