DETERMINAN EKSPOR TEKSTIL INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA PERIODE 2001.1 - 2005.12
Abstract
This research is entitled “Determinant Textile Export In Indonesia to The
Main States Of The Trade Business Partner in the years 2001.1-2005.12”. Its
purposes are to know and to analyze the influence of determinant textile export factor
Indonesia and to know the prospect of textile export performance in Indonesia.
Analytical methods, which are used for this research are Analysis Of Double Linier
Regressions and Box Jenkins Approach. The Analysis of Double Linier Regressions
is applied for estimating some variables to this research. Box Jenkins Appoach is
used for knowing Indonesia textile export prospect to the main states of the trade
business partner, such as USA and Japan.
According to the result of Double Linier Regression analytical methods,
Indonesia trade to Japan could be known that variable of export competitive ability
might get good influence and significance. GDP variable of Japan percapita positive
influence and significance, as well as the variable of Rupiah exchange rate to Yen got
good influnce and significance. While Indonesia trade to USA, variable of export
competitive ability got negative influence and significance. GDP variable of USA
percapita got positive influence and significance. Rupiah exchange rate to US$ got
positive influence and significance. The analytic result with Box-Jenkins method
(ARIMA) stated that the performance of Indonesian textile export to Japan. In this
cased, it could be known by showing the prediction value in 2001.1-2005.12 incrased.
In the mentime, Indonesia textile export performance to USA kept continuing. It
could be known by showing prediction value in 2001.1-2005.12 decreased.