Peramalan Harga Beras di Kabupaten Jember Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Model Chen

Abstract

Rice is a staple food in Indonesia. Because of that, rice consumption in Indonesia is high. This large consumption of rice in Indonesia causes rice to have a significant influence in maintaining food security. As an autonomous administrative region, Kabupaten Jember has an obligation to maintain food security in its territory. This is done by achieving minimum service standards (MSS) in the field of food security. There are seven indicators that must be achieved so that the MSS for food security is met. One of them is to maintain price stability. This is an important point for Kabupaten Jember because Jember community still has a high dependence on rice. The supply availability and price stabilization program (KPSH), the cheap market program, and the insidentil program are programs that have been carried out continuously by the jember government in order to maintain rice price stability. However, the program has not run effectively due to the weak management of development in the field of food security in anticipating changes caused by a lack of coordination, monitoring, and evaluation in the context of developing food security. Therefore, one way that can be done to help solve this problem is to create a rice price forecasting system. price forecast system can be use with the aim of anticipating price fluctuations and obtaining an overview of the condition of rice prices in the future so that the policy makers able to have better decision. Forecasting is a technique of analyzing data from the past to predict future events. The data used for forecasting is called time series. One of the methods used in forecasting is the fuzzy time series. This method is used because it’s a lightweight methods and able to function with small dateset which is beneficial in forecasting rice price in this situation.