ANALISIS AKURASI PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Abstract

Altman Z-Score model is one of the discriminant model which originated in America and is often used to predict corporate bankruptcy conditions. Issues that are often raised in the use of this model is the model accuracy problems Altman Z-Score. Therefore this research examined the accuracy of the Altman ZScore models by looking at the condition of the reality of companies in Indonesia. This research examined the accuracy of the Altman Z-Score models through modifications to the accuracy of the validation techniques auditor's opinion. Auditor's opinion is considered more realistic because it is based on the company's financial condition or audit is more comprehensive. In addition, the company's data more easily trusted by investors and other users of financial statements if the financial statements that reflect the company's performance and financial condition have got a reasonable statement of the auditor. This research aims to prove the accuracy of the Altman Z-Score models in predicting bankruptcy in terms of the auditor's opinion. The research was carried out by selecting the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2010-2012 and the independent auditors' report which have according to the auditor's opinion on the criteria for the period 2010-2012. The data used in this research is a secondary data obtained from the annual financial statements of manufacturing firms over the period 2010-2012 contained in the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analytical method used is to use the Altman Z-Score model accuracy and review the Altman Z-Score with the auditor's opinion. A review of the results of model accuracy Altman Z-Score auditor's opinion was to provide accurate conclusions by comparing the results of model predictions Altman Z-Score with the results of the company through the auditor's opinion reality.