ANALISIS ARUS KAS DAN LABA DALAM MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS PERUSAHAAN

Abstract

Financial distress condition occurs before the bankruptcy. This situation can generally be predicted using an analysis of the company's financial statements. This study aims to examine empirically which of earnings or cash flow analysis is more useful for predicting the condition of corporate financial distress. The research was conducted on manufacturing firms in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2005-2009 period. Technique performed in the sampling is purposive sampling. The sampling used in this study amounted to 36 corporate profit model and the 20 companies for cash flow model. Analysis technique used is discriminant analysis is divided into two models, namely models of earnings and cash flow models, with 13 financial ratios for each model. The results of this study indicate that the ratio of the most dominant in the model Operating profit is sales and profit margin. Classification accuracy figures both groups of companies to profit model by 88.9%. As for cash flow model, the ratio of the most dominant is Divident Payout Ratio and Cash Flow Return on stockholders' s Equity. Classification accuracy figures both groups of companies to model the cash flow amounted to 95%. Can be concluded that cash flow is more useful for predicting financial distress condition than the information rate of profit because of higher accuracyclassification.