PERAMALAN KASUS DIFTERI MENGGUNAKAN METODE KAUSAL DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Abstract

Diphtheria is an acute infectious disease which occurs locally on the respiratory tract mucosa or skin caused by bacillus gram-positive Corynebacterium Diphtheria. Diphtheria became one of the public health problem because of its prevalence that always increases. The aim of this research is to estimate the diphtheria cases in East Java, based on the number of susceptible, transmission rate, population density, and secondary attack rate. This research was observational analytical study using cross sectional design. The population and samples are all of diphtheria cases that recorded in the daily report in East Java Provincial Health Office by 2009-2013. The source of the data used in this research was secondary data and collected by the documentation method. The data obtained are presented in text, tables, charts, and maps, then analyzed using three steps. There are classic assumption test, modelling, and choose the best panel regression model. The results of research showed that the number of susceptible, population density, and the secondary attack rate have a significant influence on the occurrence of diphtheria cases in East Java Province. This research is resulting a model that can be used for forecasting diphtheria cases in the next period. So, we can plan prevention efforts and proper control to decrease diphtheria cases.