Forecasting Of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases with Decomposition Method in district of Jember in the year of 2008

Abstract

Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is one of the main health problem in Indonesia. During 1985 until 2004, Indonesia was the largest number of DHF’s morbidity and mortality after Thailand in the region of South-East Asia. This research is intended to know about the variation or the movement of time series and to predict of DHF cases in Jember area in the year of 2008. This research is done through analytic design. The information of variable which is time in this DHF series number is obtained through secondary data. This data based on recapitulation of Public Health Services in district of Jember. Decomposition Method has speciality compares to others, it is trying to isolate of each time series component such as period, trend, cyclyc, and randomness. The weakness of this method that it can not predict the randomness and ignore them. The formula of trend linier is Tt=-16,369+ 0.663 t which has significant value of Regresion Linier Test. The result of this research can be used as the planning of preventing and eliminating DHF cases in the year of 2008.