Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Drought Disaster in Sampean Baru watershed, East Java, Indonesia based on IPCC-AR5

Abstract

This research had been conducted in Sampean Baru Watershed, Bondowoso-Situbondo Regency, Indonesia. The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) categorizes this watershed as an area that has a very high level of drought. This condition is likely to get worse and will have a broad impact on people’s lives if global warming continues for the next few years, therefore, future drought assessment is needed to assist in decision making. This study aims to assess future drought using General Circulation Model data. The GCM data contains future climate change scenarios called the Representatives Concentration Pathway (RCP) as results of the Fifth Assessment Report-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) report. GCM data containing coarse-resolution climate parameters are processed using downscaling techniques, so predictive rainfall data with the fne resolution, and local scale are obtained. The rainfall data is used in Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) modelling to simulate discharge at Sampean Baru watershed. Furthermore, the Standardized Runof Index (SRI) method with simulated discharge used as input data to assess the drought severity. The results showed that the drought severity using SRI gives high accuracy and can be used for predictions of drought in the future. The drought prediction results showed that increased greenhouse gas concentrations while earth’s temperature on RCP scenarios have an infuence the intensity of drought events and drought-afected areas. Scenarios of climate change based on the temperature increase contained in the RCP will have a real efect on the severity of drought.