Inflasi dan Disintermediasi Perbankan Umum di Indonesia

Abstract

Global inflation, driven by fluctuations and volatility in world oil prices, plays a crucial role in shaping both domestic and international inflation, thereby influencing overall economic stability. Episodes of global inflation inevitably generate inflation exposure that requires a timely response from central banks and other relevant institutions, as the spillover effects may disrupt the stability of domestic banking intermediation. During the observation period from January 2011 to December 2019 (on a month-to-month basis), Indonesia experienced several episodes of inflation volatility largely triggered by rising global oil prices. This study employs three channels—net wealth (NETW), loan misallocation (LOANMIS), and deposit outflow (DEPOOUT)—to examine the stability of banking intermediation in Indonesia. The analysis uses the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method with secondary data obtained from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and incorporates inflation exposure from Indonesia’s largest trading partners—Singapore, Malaysia, China, and the United States—as a comparative measure to assess the degree of banking intermediation in Indonesia. The findings reveal that NETW and LOANMIS have a statistically significant impact on banking intermediation in Indonesia, whereas DEPOOUT does not exert a significant effect. Furthermore, inflation exposure from Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and the United States, when estimated alternately, shows no significant influence on domestic banking intermediation. This indicates that inflation exposure does not directly affect intermediation performance. These results underscore the effectiveness of Bank Indonesia’s policy measures in mitigating inflationary pressures, ensuring that the intermediation function of commercial banks in Indonesia remains stable.