Peramalan Harga Pupuk Anorganik Non Subsidi Menggunakan Algoritma Prophet

Abstract

Fertilizer is a necessity that farmers must purchase to improve crop quality. The continuously increasing price of fertilizer has caused many farmers to complain. With historical data from the past, predictions can be made for the future. The use of the Prophet algorithm can be employed to predict the prices of inorganic fertilizers, especially in East Java. This research focuses on the prices of four types of inorganic fertilizers, namely Urea, ZA, KCl, and NPK, using data from January 2021 to January 2024. The study uses two dataset splitting ratios to determine the best ratio for making predictions. From the training and testing using these two ratios, all types of fertilizers had the lowest MAPE values with the 80%:10%:10% ratio: Urea at 6.83%, ZA at 2.66%, and KCl at 4.79%, and NPK fertilizer had the lowest MAPE value at 8.91%