Pengaruh Risiko Keuangan, Investasi Asing Langsung dan Obligasi Hijau Terhadap Emisi CO2 di ASEAN-5

Abstract

Carbon emissions represent one of the primary challenges to sustainable development in the ASEAN-5 region, while the dynamics of financial risk, foreign direct investment (FDI), and green financing further influence the emission response to economic activities. This study analyzes the effect of financial risk, foreign direct investment, and green bonds on carbon emissions in ASEAN-5 for the period 2017–2024 using the Fixed Effect Model panel regression method. Carbon emissions are proxied by CO₂ emissions per capita, while the independent variables include the external debt-to-GDP ratio, exchange rate volatility, FDI, and green bonds. The results show that external debt has a negative and significant effect on carbon emissions because increased external financing is associated with technological modernization and energy efficiency. Foreign direct investment also has a negative and significant effect, indicating that FDI flows encourage technology transfer and reduce emission intensity. Exchange rate volatility does not have a significant effect on carbon emissions, so exchange rate fluctuations have not had a direct impact on changes in the structure of energy use. Conversely, green bonds have a positive and significant effect on carbon emissions, indicating that the issuance of green financing has not been fully realized in environmentally-oriented projects and still faces the risk of delayed implementation. These findings emphasize the importance of balanced financial risk management, improving the quality of foreign investment flows, and strengthening green financing governance so that carbon emission control efforts can be effective in the ASEAN-5 region.