Penentuan Titik dan Jalur Evakuasi Optimal di Kawasan Rawan Bencana Letusan Gunung Kelud (Studi Kasus: Kabupaten Kediri)

Abstract

This study aims to determine the optimal evacuation points and routes in the disaster-prone area of Mount Kelud in Kediri Regency. This region has a relatively high level of vulnerability to volcanic activity, particularly in the sub-districts located within the disaster-prone zone (DPZ). The major eruption that occurred in 2014 demonstrated that the existing evacuation system is not yet fully optimal, both in terms of evacuation locations and the routes used by the community. These conditions create the potential for evacuation delays, which could lead to the risk of loss of life. This study employs the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), scoring analysis, and the Network Analyst method based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The AHP method is used to determine the weight of importance for each variable influencing the selection of evacuation points and routes. This is followed by the scoring method to assess the suitability of evacuation points and routes based on predetermined parameters. Network Analyst was used to determine the most optimal evacuation routes based on the selected variables. The results of the study indicate that the evacuation points are located outside the High-Risk Zone, have good accessibility, and are supported by relatively gentle topography. The selected evacuation routes feature topography suitable for the terrain, optimal accessibility, good road conditions, and minimal natural obstacles. The evacuation points and routes analyzed fall into the recommended category. This study is expected to serve as a reference for local governments in optimizing their disaster evacuation planning systems.