Pemodelan Inundasi Tsunami Menggunakan Delft3d di Pantai Puger Kabupaten Jember

Abstract

Indonesia is situated at the intersection of several tectonic plates, making it highly susceptible to tsunami hazards, particularly the coastal area of Puger Beach in Jember Regency, which possesses a high-risk profile. Despite this vulnerability, specific inundation modeling using megathrust earthquake scenarios for this region remains limited. This study aims to analyze wave height, arrival time, and the extent of tsunami inundation at Puger Beach to support disaster mitigation strategies. The research method utilizes numerical simulation with Delft3D software, employing a multi-domain nesting configuration that integrates high-resolution BATNAS and DEMNAS data at an 8,8-meter resolution. The model was validated using historical data from the 1994 Banyuwangi tsunami, yielding a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2,61%, which indicates a high level of predictive accuracy. The simulation results for the worst-case megathrust scenario Mw 8,9 from PusGen (2024) predict tsunami waves reaching a height of 8,32 meters with an arrival time of 36 minutes at Puger Beach. The inundation impact on the mainland reaches a maximum distance of 1299,07 meters from the coastline with a run-up value of 5,22 meters. Additionally, water overflow in the river area extends up to 2621,99 meters with a 3,75 meter run-up, while the western part experiences an inundation distance of 1178,58 meters and a 3,68 meter run-up. Overall, the total affected area covers 4,843 km². This study produces a map of affected areas and tsunami propagation parameters, serving as a technical foundation for spatial planning and disaster preparedness in the southern coastal region of East Java.