Analisis Ketimpangan Pendapatan pada Kota dan Kabupaten di Pulau Jawa dengan Pendekatan Sistem Dinamik

Abstract

Income inequality remains a persistent development challenge on Java Island despite sustained economic growth. Unequal investment distribution, disparities in human development, and limited productive employment continue to hinder inclusive development. This study examines the effects of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) on income inequality across regencies and municipalities on Java Island and evaluates long-term policy scenarios using a system dynamics approach. Balanced panel data from 119 regencies and municipalities during 2010–2024 were analyzed using the Random Effects Model (REM). System dynamics, including Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Stock Flow Diagrams (SFD), was employed to simulate policy scenarios for 2025–2035. The results indicate that GFCF, HDI, and LFPR jointly have a significant effect on income inequality. Partially, HDI has a positive and significant effect, whereas GFCF and LFPR have negative but insignificant effects. Simulation results suggest that integrated policies emphasizing equitable investment allocation, human capital development, and productive employment creation are more effective in reducing income inequality than isolated policy measures.: Sustainable and inclusive development policies that simultaneously promote equitable investment, human capital improvement, and productive employment are essential for reducing long-term income inequality across Java Island.