Analisis Peristiwa Terpilih Terhadap Kinerja Pasar Perusahaan Platform Digital Studi Kasus pada PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia

Abstract

Digital platform companies derive their valuation from network effects, making their stock prices sensitive to regulations affecting their business models, yet firm-level studies of these reactions remain limited. Minister of Trade Regulation Number 31 of 2023 on social commerce directly affected the business model of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) through Tokopedia's competition with TikTok Shop. This study descriptively analyzes GOTO's stock market reaction, reflected through abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR), around the event. The method is quantitative descriptive research with a case study design through the event study approach and market-adjusted model, using PT Bukalapak.com Tbk (BUKA) as a contextual comparator. The results show GOTO recorded a positive AR of 1.07% on the event day, reflecting price resilience amid a 1.07% decline in the index, while BUKA recorded a negative AR of 1.74% on the same day. GOTO's CAR widened from -0.02% in the [-1,+1] window to -10.70% in the [-5,+5] window due to accumulated confounding events. This divergence in reaction direction is consistent with signaling theory. This study concludes that market reactions to identical regulations depend on a firm's competitive position toward the regulation's substance, rather than solely on sector membership or fundamental condition.