Perancangan Sistem Informasi Manajemen Peramalan Penjualan Berbasis Website (Studi Kasus UMKM Kampung Edamame)

Abstract

Fluctuations in product demand at Kampung Edamame make it difficult to determine the appropriate production volume, potentially leading to stock shortages. Production planning, which is still carried out manually based on experience, also increases the risk of inaccurate decision-making. This study aims to design a web-based sales forecasting management information system and to compare the accuracy levels of the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods to determine the most optimal forecasting method. The study employs a quantitative approach using the Waterfall model of the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC). The data used consists of 52 weeks of historical sales data for Edamame Crispy, obtained through observation, interviews, documentation, literature review, and questionnaires. Analysis was conducted using the DMA and DES methods, with accuracy evaluated based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), while system testing was performed through Blackbox Testing and User Acceptance Testing (UAT). The results of the study indicate that the system was successfully developed with features including login, dashboard, POS (Point of Sale), sales data, products, forecasting, reports, and user management. Validation results show that the system’s calculations produced values identical to those obtained manually using Microsoft Excel. The DMA method generated a sales forecast of 765 units for the 53rd period with a MAPE of 2.88%, while the DES method produced a forecast of 764 units with a MAPE of 2.66%. All Blackbox Testing scenarios yielded satisfactory results, and users provided positive feedback regarding the system’s ease of use. Based on these results, the DES method is the most optimal method for sales forecasting at Kampung Edamame. The developed system is capable of supporting production and sales decision-making in a more effective, accurate, and integrated manner.