Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kota dan Kabupaten di Jawa Timur dengan Pendekatan Ekonometrika Spasial

Abstract

Economic growth in the cities and regencies of East Java Province continues to exhibit interregional disparities, reflecting differences in investment capacity, human capital quality, labor productivity, and spatial linkages. This study aims to analyze the determinants of economic growth, examine spatial autocorrelation, identify interregional heterogeneity, and assess economic convergence. This study contributes by integrating panel econometric and spatial approaches within a unified empirical framework. The methods employed include panel regression, Moran’s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), Panel Geographically Weighted Regression (Panel GWR), and absolute and conditional convergence analysis. The study uses a balanced panel dataset of 38 cities and regencies in East Java Province over the period 2010-2024, with per capita GRDP growth as the dependent variable and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), labor, and the Human Development Index (HDI) as independent variables. The results show that GFCF has a positive and the most consistent effect in promoting economic growth. HDI also has a positive and statistically significant effect, whereas labor is not statistically significant overall, indicating limitations in productivity. A positive and significant Moran’s I confirms spatial dependence, while LISA reveals the presence of High-High and Low-Low clusters. The GWR Panel results indicate spatial heterogeneity across regions. The convergence analysis shows the existence of both absolute and conditional convergence, with GFCF as the primary accelerating factor. However, the convergence process is not uniform across regions. These findings highlight the importance of place-based development policies through investment equalization, human capital improvement, and strengthened interregional connectivity