Peramalan Peserta BPJS Kesehatan Segmen PBPU Nonaktif di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Data Time Series

Abstract

The sustainability of the National Health Insurance (JKN) program relies heavily on participant activeness; however, a significant rise in inactive Non-Wage Recipient Workers (PBPU) participants in East Java threatens Universal Health Coverage (UHC) targets. This study aims to forecast the number of inactive PBPU participants in East Java Province for the 2025–2029 period. This quantitative study utilized a time-series forecasting design, analyzing secondary data from the DJSN Sismonev portal from January 2020 to December 2024. A total sampling technique was applied to all recorded inactive PBPU participants in the region. Data were analyzed using the multiplicative Holt–Winters exponential smoothing method via RStudio and Microsoft Excel 2019, with model accuracy evaluated using RMSE, MAD, and MAPE metrics. The forecasting model demonstrated good performance, yielding an RMSE of 1,036,586, a MAD of 297,093, and a MAPE of 10.14% (𝝰 = 0.9677, β = 0, γ = 1). Projections indicate a stable, gradual upward trend in inactive participants, ranging from 1,895,294 (September 2025) to 2,678,078 (August 2029). In conclusion, the projected increase in inactive PBPU participants requires preventive policy interventions as an early warning system to safeguard the JKN program's sustainability.