Peramalan Harga Telur Ayam Ras di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Abstract

East Java Province is the largest producer of purebred chicken eggs in Indonesia, with production reaching 1.75 million tons in 2023 according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The prices of purebred chicken eggs often fluctuates due to factors such as rising feed and chick prices, disease outbreaks, increased consumer demand during certain celebrations, and extreme climate changes. These price fluctuations can impact various stakeholders, including farmers and consumers, and contribute to inflation. Therefore, a forecasting mechanism for purebred chicken egg prices is needed to support decision-making in price control strategy planning. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) is one method that can be applied to forecast time series data that show both seasonal and non-seasonal patterns. This research used historical data on average monthly prices of purebred chicken eggs in East Java from January 2014 to March 2024, obtained from the Sistem Informasi Ketersediaan dan Perkembangan Harga Bahan Pokok (SISKAPERBAPO) in East Java. The results indicate that the 𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (3,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model with a 90:10 data split show the best performance and was selected as the primary model for future forecasting. The average forecasted prices of purebred chicken eggs for the next 6 periods are as follow: Rp 28.893/kg on 2024-04-30, Rp 28.690/kg on 2024 05-31, Rp 29.046/kg on 2024-06-30, Rp 28.311/kg on 2024-07-31, Rp 25.939/kg on 2024-08-31, and Rp 23.568/kg on 2024-09-30. The error rate of the 6 periods forecast for purebred chicken egg prices in East Java was evaluated using the metrics MAE = 1300.90, RMSE =