Investigating the Effects of Several Intervention on Supply Chain Behavior Evidence from West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact magnitudes and patterns of several intervention events, including eight earthquakes and Covid-19 pandemic, on the number of unloading and loading goods in the three main ports and airports in West Nusa Tenggara Province during 2015-2020. The multi-input intervention models are performed for twelve series data obtained from BPS-Statistics of West Nusa Tenggara Province. The results from the estimated response values show that generally the number of unloading and loading in the three main ports and airports have experienced mixed impact, i.e., negative, and positive impacts. As the main concern in this study, the negative impacts were more experienced by the number of unloading and loading goods in airports than in ports indicating that the supply chain in airports was more vulnerable to intervention. Lombok International Airport and Sultan M Kaharuddin Airport received the most negative impact during the period. Most intervention events have delayed impact patterns that are more experienced by the three airports than the three ports. Started in March 2020, Covid-19 produced the widest and biggest negative impacts. These impacts are even bigger than the impacts produced by the severe earthquakes that occurred in August 2018.