Modeling Student Mathematics Achievement in Senior High School Based on Selection Results Using Gee 2 Method with Natural Spline

Abstract

Every school has a vision and mission to become the superior inst itution so that it can compete and gain trust from the public. To achieve that, one of the efforts of the school is doing the select ion of new students at the beginning of each academic year. In Lumajang region, admission of new students (PPDB) are selected using several components, such as nat ional test scores (NUN) and Mapping/Placement test (MP). This research explores the best model of the relationship between select ion components (and other condit ions of students at the time of select ion) and academic achievement during high school (in the form semester mathemat ics grade) starting from semester 1 till 5 at 3 schools in Lumajang regions. We apply Generalized Estimat ing Equation order 2 (GEE2) with Natural Spline. The results show that (i) the three schools, have different model and PGRI has the highest mean, followed by SMA1and SMA3, as shown by significant negat ive estimates of the coefficients. (i) Altough it is relat ively small, distance from school has negatif contribution to the mathematics grade as shown by negatif (but significant) coefficient; (ii) The Junior High School NUN has nonlinear (and nonparametric) contribution as shown by the graphical representation and coefficient of natural spline. (iii) Score of Placement Test contribute posit ively and significant ly to the the smester mathemat ics grade.