Perlambatan Pertumbuhan dan Transisi Demografi di Indonesia

Abstract

Macro economic fluctuation and Indonesian demographic symptom are the cause of the growth slowdowns. Global ecomomic downturn brings impact on domestic economi, both for developing country and developed country, as well as indonesia. Furthermore, the condition of indonesian demographic profile that tend to incrise is also affecting the slowing down for the economy. This research aims to find correlation beetwen macro economic and demographic variabel and their contribution for the economic slowdown, as well as to see the longrun relation ship beetwen GDP percapita performance and demographic profile. In order to answer the question, a regression analysis is used. In addition, OLS method and cointegration test by using johantion test is applied. Result of the estimation shows that demographioc variabel is causing Indonesian economic slowdowns. However, other Indonesian demographic profiles such as dependency ratio and life expectation, in the longrun, positively contributed to Indonesia economy. This result supports the indonesia demographic projection that explain whithin year 2020-2030 indoonesia will enjoy demographic bonus in which give great contrib tion for the Indonesian economy.