Interkoneksi Volatilitas Nilai Tukar Dan Tujuan Domestic Impossible Trinity Pada Asean-4: Dornbusch Overshooting Model

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify the issues of becoming of the volatility of the exchange rate that is seen the theory of exchange rate overshooting by Dornbusch with the assumptionsthat goods prices are sticky.Thenimplicatesindetermining themonetarypolicyframework in a country known as theimpossibletrinity.ImpossibleTrinity consists of three the policy are not fully always dominant used simultaneously, namely thestability ofexchangerates,the mobility of capitalflows(FDI), andmonetaryindependentpolicy,namelyGDP,inflation, andtheinterest rate. Theresearch period lasts 1987Q1-2016Q4 with the country which became the object of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. In this research model is the model Dynamic Vector Error Correction models (VECM) models.The result of the analysis indicate that all countries experiencedthephenomenonofovershooting.Theninthedeterminationof policiesMonetary found, thatIndonesia puts moreemphasis on inflation and GDP, Malaysia on interest rates and Foreign Direct Investment, Thailand on inflation and interestrates and Philippines on exchangerate and GDP trails through inflation. Exchange rate overshooting determines of the monetery policy that depend on the characteristic and economic priority of a countries.