Impact of Earthquakes on The Number of Airline Passenger Arrivals and Departures: A Case Study of West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of earthquakes on the number of airline passenger arrivals and departures in West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. The monthly data of airline passengers at Lombok International Airport (Lombok), Sultan M. Kaharuddin Airport (Sumbawa), and Sultan M. Salahudin Airport (Bima) from January 2008 to December 2018 were used to conduct this study. The time series regression model was used to examine two scenarios, namely the global and partial effect of each earthquake event. The results showed that the impact of earthquakes on the number of airline passenger arrivals and departures was not evident globally. However, there was a significant negative impact on the partial effects, especially for the earthquakes that occurred in August 2018 and December 2018. The real and predicted effects of an earthquake in the month that it occurs have the same value when measured with the best model, thereby indicating the accuracy of the model in predicting the earthquake’s effects in the month of its occurrence. However, this study shows that the real effect after a month of occurrence is usually more significant than the estimated effect. Therefore, future research can focus on analysing the disaggregated data by region or airport and determine other variables that better describe the impact of earthquakes.