Forecasting dan Aggregate Planning: Optimalisasi Perencanaan Produksi Kopi Pada Perusahaan Daerah Perkebunan Kahyangan Jember

Abstract

This research addresses the production planning challenges faced by Perusahaan Daerah Perkebunan (PDP) Kahyangan Jember, specifically the gap between fluctuating market demand and supply capacity that leads to stockouts and lost sales. The primary objective is to analyze historical demand patterns and determine the most cost-efficient aggregate planning strategy—comparing Level and Chase strategies—to optimize green bean coffee production. This study utilizes a quantitative descriptive case study approach focusing on the Gunung Pasang plantation. Data analysis was performed on 25 months of historical demand (August 2023 – August 2025). The demand pattern was identified as random through autocorrelation tests. To project future demand, the study compared Simple Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods, evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that SES (α = 0.246) is the most accurate forecasting model, yielding the lowest MAPE of 2.5%. Based on these projections for September–December 2025, aggregate planning calculations revealed that the Level Strategy is more economical, with a total cost of Rp116.999.990, compared to the Chase Strategy at Rp119.790.111. The study concludes that the Level Strategy is the optimal choice for PDP Kahyangan, offering an 11% cost saving (equivalent to Rp13.416.782) over the company's current reactive production methods. This strategy ensures operational stability by maintaining a constant production rate of 4.017 kg per month while utilizing inventory to balance demand. It is recommended that the company maintains a safety stock of 2,084 kg and implements a strict FIFO (First-In-First-Out) system to preserve product quality.