| dc.description.abstract | The purpose of this thesis writing is to recognize whether there is a causal
relation between export and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia in 1987.I –
2007.IV period.
This research applied Error Correction Model (ECM) method and Granger
Causality. The data was used secondary time series data from 1987.I up to 2007.IV
period, consisted of oil and gas export and non-oil and gas export and Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). ECM used to correct the balance of the short period to the
long period. Meanwhile, the Granger causality used to distinguish whether there is an
effectual relation within the variables or not.
Based on the result of ECM analysis and Granger causality, it is confirmed
that there was no causal relation between export and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in Indonesia in 1987.I – 2007.IV period found. Each researched variables has it is
own independent characteristic and did not show an effectual relation. Based on the
research result and a conclusion made, some considerations which can be given are
the need of export growth improvement in the quality and competitive capacity of the
product in the market, regulations in the bureaucracy and administration area also the
national export improvement in order to raise economic growth in Indonesia | en_US |
