Prediksi Jumlah Penumpang Bus Tawang Alun Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Sometimes the terminal Tawang Alun Jember cannot provide comfort to passengers due to inadequate facilities as a results of the terminal’s umpreparedness to accomodate the surge in passengers. An increase in the numbers of bus passenger is one indicator. Therefore, land transportation companies need to manage the number of passenger effectively to increase profits and ensure comfort for passengers. Double Exponential Smoothing Method each category has different value. The best category is the category whose MSE value is close to 0, namely the category “Jumlah Penumpang AKAP yang berangkat” with a value of 121.63053204544609. And The best category is the category whose MAPE value is close to 0, namely the category “Jumlah Penumpang AKDP yang datang” with a value of 2.4249523994044893. In all categories, the optimum alpha and gamma value are the same with a value each other 0.9 and 0.1.