Implementasi Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen dalam Peramalan Rata-Rata Harga Minyak Goreng Curah di Indonesia

Abstract

Cooking oil has a very important role for the community because it is used in everyday life, so the availability of cooking oil stock is an important thing that must be fulfilled. Indonesia has experienced a shortage of cooking oil stocks from early 2022 to March 2022, which has made cooking oil difficult to come by and its prices have skyrocketed. Uncertain fluctuations in the price of cooking oil from time to time can affect the stability of cooking oil prices. One way that can be done so that the price of cooking oil remains stable is to monitor the price of cooking oil in the future. The existence of price forecasting is needed to be able to predict the price of cooking oil in the coming period. The forecasting method used in this research is Chen's Fuzzy Time Series. The data used in this study is the average price of bulk cooking oil in Indonesia for the period January 2018 to December 2022. In this study, the results of forecasting the price of bulk cooking oil in the period January 2018 to December 2022 produce very accurate price predictions and can be used as a reference to predict data in the next period. As for the forecasting results obtained in the next period, namely January 2023, it is IDR 14,934. The results of measurement of forecast error using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) using data splitting with a ratio of 80:20 respectively 980.64 and 4.77%