| dc.description.abstract | Exchange rate crisis is one part of the financial crisis. The financial crisis is
divided into three part, they are banking crisis, exchange rate crisis and the
debt crisis. The importance of awareness in anticipation of the crisis by
developing an early warning system model. The purpose of this study was to
determine the period of exchange rate crisis that occurred in Indonesia
during period used in this research, also determine the effect of inflation,
exchange rates, interest rates and foreign exchange reserves against
potential exchange rate crisis. This study used the Exchange Market Pressure
(EMP) and the parametric approach. Logit Estimates indicate that the
threshold value of 1 standard deviation times the only variable affecting the
exchange rate, and then the threshold value of 1.5 times the standard
deviation of inflation and exchange rates have a significant effect on the
potential for exchange rate crisis. While the threshold value 2 times the
standard deviation of inflation and foreign exchange reserves was
significant. It concluded that the greater the standard deviation used, the
potential occurrence of a crisis period will be reduced, while, the potential
for the largest exchange rate crisis laid on the variable inflation. | en_US |
