Early Warning System Keuangan Dalam Menjaga Stabilitas Makro Ekonomi

Abstract

Exchange rate crisis is one part of the financial crisis. The financial crisis is divided into three part, they are banking crisis, exchange rate crisis and the debt crisis. The importance of awareness in anticipation of the crisis by developing an early warning system model. The purpose of this study was to determine the period of exchange rate crisis that occurred in Indonesia during period used in this research, also determine the effect of inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and foreign exchange reserves against potential exchange rate crisis. This study used the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) and the parametric approach. Logit Estimates indicate that the threshold value of 1 standard deviation times the only variable affecting the exchange rate, and then the threshold value of 1.5 times the standard deviation of inflation and exchange rates have a significant effect on the potential for exchange rate crisis. While the threshold value 2 times the standard deviation of inflation and foreign exchange reserves was significant. It concluded that the greater the standard deviation used, the potential occurrence of a crisis period will be reduced, while, the potential for the largest exchange rate crisis laid on the variable inflation.