Analisis Pengaruh Kondisi Makro Ekonomi Indonesia dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Kredit Perbankan

Abstract

Indonesia Banking credit has an uptrend if we look out during past few years. Credits, which is given by bank to the third party is depended on economic conditions in Indonesia as consideration for the credit risk, whether it is investment credits, capital credits, and consumption credits. Goals of this research was to investigate the behavior of macroeconomics variable which is contain of inflation, GDP, BI rate and also external factor world oil price to the Banking credits. In this research focused on using quantitative analysis with OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) method. OLS estimation shows that investment credit is determined by PDB and BI rate, but inflation and world oil price is not significant. At capital credits, inflation doesn’t have significant effect, so this credit is determined by GDP, world oil price and BI rate. But, in consumption credit, there is only GDP which has significant effect, whether inflation, world oil price, and BI rates are not significant. Therefore, can be concluded that is not all of the variables has the same effect to the each investment credits, capital credits, and consumption credits. Just inflation which there is no effect to all of kind of credits, and GDP has significant effect to all of kind of credits.