MODEL NERACA KEBUTUHAN DAN KETERSEDIAAN LAHAN PERTANIAN PANGAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN SISTEM DINAMIS

Abstract

This study aims to look forward about the need and availability of agricultural land in the district of Jember . Variables used population growth and changes in agricultural land or the so-called conversion rate of agricultural land . A systems approach is used to understand the influence of variables in the model balance the needs of land . Causality of each variable and its effect becomes a key influence on the nature of this approach . The analysis showed that Jember has an average population growth rate of 0.54 % per year , the population growth has an impact on the food needs which means the need for agricultural land increases linearly with population growth . If projected , then in 2031 Jember need for 65 929 ha of agricultural land . On the other hand, the reduction in the rate of conversion of agricultural land of 2.12 % per year , it can be projected to the year 2031 the availability of agricultural land in Jember only 64 786 ha , meaning a deficit of availability of 1.143 ha of agricultural land .