METODE PERAMALAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENGEMASAN R-PACKAGE T.E.S.BROWN (Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method for Number of Foreign Tourists in Indonesia With T.E.S.Brown R-Package Packaging)

Abstract

This study aims to predict and determine the appropriate method of Exponential Smoothing on the number of foreign tourists and the star hotels Room Occupancy Rate (ROR) by tourists who come to Indonesia every month, the number of tourists and star hotels ROR by tourists who come to Bali every month and t.e.s.brown R-Package packaging. The result is forecasting data on the number of tourists and ROR of tourists each month in the year 2010, the t.e.s.brown R-Package and Exponential smoothing forecasting model of each time series data. The steps in forecasting data on the number of tourists are as follows. First, trend analysis to identify patterns of time series data. Next, the selection of appropriate methods of Exponential Smoothing based on trend analysis. Third, determine the smoothing constanta by trial and error. Fourth, the calculation of forecasting component and forecasting results. The last, interprete the results of forecasting to determine the effect of global crisis in 2010.